The data set consisted of all races where the new industrial SP was used from June 1st to July 18ththinclusive. Also all races from those courses that had been run from 2017-2020 inclusively under the on-course SP rules. The data came from the Proform database
Issues occurred where there were rule 4 deductions; These could give a negative over-round per horse, so anyl race where the over-round per horse, OPH, was negative was deleted. Also, all races with odds on favourites were removed as they markedly affect the OPH due to each-way betting.
This left a dataset of 15611 races of which 1048 were under the new industrial SP.
This shows the industrial SP has produced a significantly lower OPH than the on-course method.
The total overorund is lower for the industrial ISP and shows signs of being markedly lower for larger fields. Only field sizes between 5 and 12 have been used as there isn’t enough data yet outside this for the industrial SP.
This shows that with both methods, the OPH drops similarly as the number of runners increases.
Only races with 5-12 runners were used as there weren’t enough other sized fields under the Industrial SP to compare.
The graph shows the OPH for the industrial SP for the seven weeks of the trial. There is a significant variation across the weeks, including a very sharp rise between weeks four and five.
Looked at by days a similar pattern emerges.
This compares the OPH by courses for A/W racing. The industrial SP OPH is lower, and the less competitive courses under the on-course SP, Lingfield and Chelmsford City, fall in line with the others.
There isn’t enough data to compare the turf courses yet, but there are not the outliers with the Industrial SP so far that are with the on-course SP.
If we look at horses starting with an SP of higher than 25/1, we find that in the previous five years these made up 22.8% of all flat and A/W runners in June and July. For this year for June and up to July 18ththese runners have made up 29% of the all the runners. This is a significant increase and does go some way to explaining the change in OPH as the industrial SP seems to price outsiders up at a bigger price.